Lessons from the Champions League: from the Premier League to PSG without Mbappé

Results from a knockout tournament can be deliciously unclear. Oakland and Saint Peter's can defeat Kentucky. The New England Patriots can lose against the New York Giants (twice). Morocco has the ability to defeat Spain and Portugal consecutively, and the Premier League, which is the richest soccer league, has the potential to collapse in UEFA tournaments.

Many English dreams and narratives were dashed in the Champions League and Europa League quarterfinal round of fixtures. Following a second consecutive elimination defeat to Real Madrid in three years and Antonio Rüdiger's game-winning penalty kick, Manchester City's hopes of winning a "Double Treble" vanished. A late comeback effort against Atalanta ended Liverpool's ambitions of sending Jurgen Klopp into retirement with their own special triple of winning the League Cup, Europa League, and Premier League.


Though Arsenal's general revival is still underway, its ambitions of reaching its first Champions League semifinal in fifteen years were dashed in Munich, the same location many of its hopes for the Champions League in the twenty-first century have perished. Only Aston Villa's thrilling victory against Lille in the Europa Conference League, helped by a bizarre goal late in regulation, preserved England in the tournament after West Ham also lost to Bayer Leverkusen.

In the meantime, Germany's two biggest teams are in the Champions League semifinals for the first time in 11 years after Barcelona lost both their lead and their composure against PSG. Bayer Leverkusen, who defeated those two heavyweights this season with eight points in four games, is still unbeaten in the Europa League.

Even though these competitions are arbitrary, once we see results that catch our attention, we invariably head straight to the narrative machine. The Premier League is much too inflated! The Bundesliga isn't given enough credit! PSG's strategy was always on track! After a few days to process the action, let's discuss what we actually learned—and didn't—from these amazing quarterfinal rounds.

Sure, money is important, but so is everything else.
Though it probably goes without saying, let me say it anyway: The Premier League is still unquestionably the greatest league in Europe (and, by extension, the world) despite quarterfinal blowouts. It is the most financially advantageous, the greatest depth, the most valuable roster, etc. It has produced seven Champions League finals in the previous six seasons before to this one. Furthermore, 20 Premier League teams earn about the same total income as all 38 La Liga and Bundesliga teams, all 642 clubs in Europe's bottom 50 nations, and all 20 clubs in the Bundesliga. This information comes from UEFA's most current benchmarking study.

But it was almost consoling to learn that a league's financial might isn't the only factor that matters. The Premier League has failed to translate depth into significant European success in the last two seasons. Yes, the English teams that made it to the semifinals of their respective competitions last spring were Manchester City (Champions League) and West Ham (Europa Conference League); the other teams that made it to the quarterfinals were Chelsea (Champions League) and Manchester United (Europa League). The only two English teams to go past their groups' elimination stages in the Champions League this season were Newcastle and Manchester United, who both lost in the quarterfinals.

In terms of money, the Premier League has separated itself from the field, but not enough to get past the "Stuff Happens principle" of knockout competitions. Mikel Arteta of Arsenal was outmanoeuvred by Thomas Tuchel of Bayern, much as Jurgen Klopp of Liverpool outmanoeuvred Gian Piero Gasperini of Atalanta. (I realize the 66-year-old won't be hired by Liverpool to succeed Klopp, but still, that's a very seductive idea.)

In contrast, City appeared to outperform Real Madrid over the course of two legs, trying 45 attempts to the Blancos' 22 and producing 3.5 xG while giving up only 2.1. However, they were unable to create many good chances, and they lost in a penalty shootout to Real Madrid's timely skill.

Nor were the Champions League quarterfinal outcomes encouraging for European equity. Even though the Premier League is the richest league in the world, the semifinalists from this year still ranked first (Real Madrid), fourth (PSG), sixth (Bayern), and 12th (Borussia Dortmund) in terms of overall revenue in 2023; in fact, the only "upset" in the quarterfinals was PSG's victory over Barcelona, which came in third place in terms of revenue.

However, the richest league didn't yield the richest outcomes, which resulted in a significant shift in the coefficient race. The nations with the highest overall success in the three UEFA tournaments will receive two bids each into the newly enlarged Champions League of the following year. Real Madrid 8 shots, Manchester City 33.

That seems a little off.

Goals with at least 0.3 xG: Manchester City 1, Real Madrid 3.

Out of the 33 shot attempts made by City, just 10 were within 10 meters of the goal, and 24 of them had a value of 0.08 xG or less. Real Madrid dared City to do something spectacular to defeat them by keeping people behind the ball and giving up very few good looks. In both the first leg of the quarterfinal in Madrid and the second leg of the semifinal last year, City triumphed 4-0 over the Blancos.  In the leg, they tried 12 shots, 10 of which were worth less than 0.08 xG. However, they took the lead thanks to a cunning 28-meter free kick by Bernardo Silva (xG: 0.03) and two incredible goals from Josko Gvardiol (23 meters, 0.03 xG) and Phil Foden (20 meters, 0.06 xG). Those three goals come from shots that should have produced around 0.1 goals on average.

Regretfully, Real Madrid equaled City's technical skill with goals from Fede Valverde and Rodrygo, plus an own goal from Rúben Dias early on. In the second leg, City would thus need to produce even more spectacular strikes, but they were unable to do so.